Boks must prevent All Blacks from making a fast start

As excitement builds ahead of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry at Ellis Park on Saturday, the Boks know one thing is crucial.

They cannot afford to let the All Blacks make a fast start.

Teams around the world know how difficult it is to chase New Zealand once they gain early momentum. That challenge becomes even greater on Ellis Park’s hard, fast surface and at altitude.

Therefore, the Boks must control the opening exchanges and prevent the All Blacks from finding their rhythm.

The statistics support that approach. When the Boks have kept the score close during the opening 20 minutes, they have enjoyed remarkable success.

In fact, they have won eight of their last 10 meetings with New Zealand when the margin after 20 minutes was three points or fewer.

Boks know the All Blacks thrive on fast starts

The All Blacks have shown repeatedly how dangerous they can be when they establish an early lead.

On three occasions against the Boks, New Zealand have opened up a 14-0 advantage. Each time, they held that lead and eventually won the match.

However, the Boks have also shown they can recover from difficult starts.

In Wellington in 2018, the All Blacks raced into a 12-0 lead after 20 minutes. The Boks fought back and eventually secured a dramatic victory at the death.

New Zealand’s record against other nations also highlights the importance of their opening exchanges. They have led after 20 minutes against every other team they have faced in recent matches.

More importantly, they have won most of those contests.

That pattern underlines the All Blacks’ approach. They want to start quickly, build scoreboard pressure and force opponents to play catch-up rugby.

Against the Boks, the numbers are particularly revealing.

The only two occasions when New Zealand have led after 20 minutes in recent meetings were in Auckland in 2023 and 2025. They won both matches.

Opening 20 minutes could decide the Boks’ approach

The contrast is clear when the Boks have started strongly.

In Wellington last year, South Africa led 7-3 after 20 minutes and went on to win 43-10. The previous week in Auckland, New Zealand led 14-0 at the same stage and eventually won 24-17.

Earlier, the Boks led 7-0 after 20 minutes in Johannesburg and secured a 31-27 victory.

In Cape Town in 2024, the teams were locked at 3-3 after the opening 20 minutes. The Boks eventually claimed victory.

The 2023 World Cup final provides another example. South Africa led 6-3 after 20 minutes before winning 12-11.

Before that tournament, the Boks also led 35-7 against New Zealand at Twickenham after producing a dominant performance.

Those results do not guarantee anything on Saturday. However, they show how important the opening exchanges could become.

Ellis Park presents a major challenge

The All Blacks will undoubtedly want a fast start at Ellis Park.

The opening test provides the perfect opportunity to lay down a marker. An early score on the Highveld would give New Zealand exactly the momentum they want.

The Boks, meanwhile, have their own warning from their most recent Rugby Championship match at Ellis Park.

South Africa produced an outstanding opening quarter against Australia, racing into a 22-0 lead.

Yet the match ultimately became a nightmare.

The Boks pushed themselves hard, conceded turnovers and struggled as fatigue set in. Australia capitalised and turned the match around.

That experience has not been forgotten.

Assistant coach Felix Jones confirmed on Tuesday that the Boks have learned important lessons from that performance.

“We’ve definitely spoken about it, and we learned a lot from that game in terms of starting so well,” Jones said.

South Africa had built a huge advantage but failed to maintain the right balance.

“Looking back on it now, we probably just fell into the trap of thinking it was always going to be like that,” Jones explained.

A few things worked perfectly for the Boks early on, but they continued pushing without managing the game effectively.

“We really felt we’ve learned a lot since that game,” Jones added.

Boks must match New Zealand’s intensity

Jones also stressed that South Africa understand exactly what awaits them against New Zealand.

The All Blacks have built their reputation on starting matches with enormous intensity.

“We’re super aware we have to start,” Jones said. “New Zealand have always prided themselves on starting really, really fast.”

He pointed to last year’s Auckland test as another example.

New Zealand scored early, forcing the Boks to fight their way back into the contest. South Africa managed to do so, but ultimately fell short in the closing stages.

Therefore, Jones knows the Boks must be ready from the opening whistle.

“We’re aware we have to start with a huge amount of intensity,” he said.

“It’s almost a given when you play New Zealand that they start fast.”

Training cannot fully replicate the test

The Boks pride themselves on intense training sessions designed to recreate the pressure of international rugby.

However, Jones admitted there is only so much preparation can achieve.

Both teams have arrived at the test well prepared after their recent franchise and international matches.

South Africa also had a preparation game against Argentina for some players. Others remained in camp as the coaching staff prepared for the All Blacks.

Still, nothing can completely reproduce the intensity of a test between these two rivals.

“I don’t think anyone — when New Zealand plays South Africa — any prep really replicates the level of intensity that you’re going to experience,” Jones explained.

Nevertheless, both teams should enter Ellis Park confident in their preparation.

The Boks cannot afford to lose control

The opening 20 minutes will be brutally physical, with both teams expected to attack at full intensity.

The score after 20 minutes will not necessarily decide the test. Rugby can change dramatically in a matter of minutes.

However, history suggests the early scoreboard will provide an important indication.

For the Boks, the objective is therefore straightforward: match New Zealand’s intensity without losing control.

If South Africa can prevent the All Blacks from building early momentum, they will give themselves an excellent platform.

At Ellis Park, that could prove decisive in the opening battle of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.